If you’ve been watching Maui’s housing market over the past year, you’ve probably noticed two conflicting trends: sales are accelerating, yet prices—especially for condos—are falling sharply. December 2025 confirmed this pattern in a big way. Sales jumped by double digits, inventory opened up, and condo values saw one of the steepest year-over-year declines on record.
For buyers, these shifts may signal new opportunities. For sellers, they raise urgent questions about pricing strategy, timing, and the impact of policy changes like Bill 9. This guide breaks down exactly what happened in December, why it matters, and what you should do next—whether you’re buying, selling, or trying to understand Maui’s rapidly changing real estate landscape.
Key Takeaways
• Single-family home sales rose 22.2% year-over-year in December 2025.
• Condo sales rose even more sharply, up 41.5% compared to December 2024.
• Condo prices dropped 25.6% to a median of $640,000—the steepest decline in years.
• Year-end condo prices fell 23%, averaging $692,860 for 2025.
• Single-family home prices slipped slightly by 2% to $1,340,000.
• Inventory rose, creating more options and slower market times for both homes and condos.
• Days on market increased to 128 days for homes and 162 days for condos.
• Uncertainty around Bill 9 is weighing heavily on the condo market.
• Higher maintenance fees and insurance costs are making many condos financially out of reach for buyers.
• Despite price drops, total dollar volume increased due to higher transaction activity.
What’s Driving the Big Changes in Maui’s December 2025 Real Estate Market?
Maui entered the end of 2025 with a noticeable shift: more inventory, more buyer engagement, and falling prices in key segments. This combination brought more activity—sales rose for both homes and condos—but it also highlighted deeper pressures, especially in the condo market.
According to new data from the Realtors Association of Maui (RAM), the volatility is tied not just to economic conditions but also policy changes and rising ownership costs that haven’t slowed down.
How Did Single-Family Homes Perform in December?
Single-family homes saw a meaningful increase in activity. Sales were up 22.2%, with 66 homes sold in December 2025 compared to 54 in December 2024. Buyers who were previously priced out or waiting for more selection re-entered the market, helped by the rise in available listings.
Prices, however, softened slightly. The median home price dipped 2% to $1,340,000. While not a dramatic shift, it reinforces the cooling trend that’s been building throughout 2025. Days on market also ticked up to 128 days—a signal that the market is still active but no longer moving at the rapid pace seen during the peak years of low inventory and pandemic-driven demand.
How Did Condominiums Perform—and Why Are Prices Dropping So Fast?
The condo market saw the most dramatic change by far. Sales surged 41.5%—yet prices dropped 25.6% year-over-year for December. The median price plummeted from $860,000 in December 2024 to $640,000 in December 2025. For the full year, condo prices fell 23%, landing at $692,860.
This combination—higher sales but lower prices—suggests that buyers are taking advantage of the sudden affordability, while sellers are pricing aggressively to move units in a shifting market. Days on market tell the same story: condos sat for a median of 162 days, a 38.5% increase. Simply put, condos are taking much longer to sell.
Buyers are taking advantage of the sudden affordability, while sellers are pricing aggressively to move units.
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Is Bill 9 Responsible for the Condo Price Decline?
According to RAM CEO Malama Minn, yes—at least partially. Bill 9 phases out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned districts. While its intent was to convert vacation rentals into long-term housing or primary residences, the current data doesn’t support that outcome.
Minn notes that uncertainty around Bill 9 has chilled buyer confidence and dragged down condo values. Buyers are wary of purchasing a unit that may lose its rental income potential or face new long-term restrictions. And even beyond the bill, condos have become more expensive to own for reasons that don’t show up in the listing price. Maintenance fees and insurance premiums are rising rapidly—costs that can push the monthly payment beyond what many buyers can manage.
Why Are Properties Sitting Longer Before Selling?
Across Maui, both homes and condos are taking longer to sell because inventory is higher than in previous years, buyers are being more selective, financial feasibility is changing due to fees and insurance, and policy uncertainty is affecting investor confidence. RAM President Georgie Tamayose summarized the shift well, noting that more inventory and longer market times are giving buyers space to be thoughtful, instead of rushing into decisions.
What About Total Sales Volume?
Even with price declines, the total dollar volume for real estate increased. Single-family homes accounted for $127.4 million, up 24.5%, and condominiums accounted for $77.9 million, up 28.9%. This reflects the spike in transaction activity—more homes and condos are changing hands, even if they’re selling at lower prices.
More homes and condos are changing hands—even if they’re selling at lower prices.
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Common Mistakes Buyers and Sellers Make in a Market Like This
• Buyers assume condo prices will keep falling indefinitely. Markets don’t drop in straight lines; waiting too long may mean missing the bottom.
• Sellers price aggressively based on last year’s comps. With condo prices down 25.6%, your 2024 pricing strategy won’t work in 2026.
• Investors underestimate maintenance and insurance cost inflation. These costs can add hundreds—or thousands—to monthly expenses.
• Buyers ignore policy changes like Bill 9 until they’re in escrow. Understanding zoning rules early prevents unwelcome surprises.
• Sellers fail to account for the longer selling timeline. Today’s average 162-day condo timeline requires better planning and more realistic expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did condo prices fall more sharply than single-family home prices?
Condo values are more sensitive to policy changes, investor confidence, and rising HOA and insurance costs. Bill 9 added uncertainty, slowing demand among buyers who previously depended on rental income to offset ownership costs. Single-family home demand remains stronger due to limited inventory and higher desirability for long-term living.
Is now a good time to buy a condo on Maui?
For buyers who plan to use the property as a primary residence or long-term rental, this may be one of the best opportunities in years. Prices have not been this low in over a decade, and sellers are increasingly flexible. However, investors should thoroughly evaluate HOA fees, insurance costs, and Bill 9 implications.
Will condo prices continue falling in 2026?
There may be further adjustments, especially as the full effects of Bill 9 unfold. However, the steepest declines often occur early in policy transitions. Watch maintenance costs and inventory levels—these will be the leading indicators.
Are sellers at a disadvantage right now?
Not necessarily. While prices are down, buyer activity is up, and well-priced properties are still moving. The key is realistic pricing and strong marketing.
How does increased days on market affect pricing strategy?
Longer market times mean sellers should price strategically from day one rather than starting high and reducing repeatedly. Well-priced listings attract serious buyers faster, even in a slower climate.
What should buyers look for when evaluating condos today?
Focus on the financials: HOA fees, reserve funding, insurance premiums, upcoming assessments, and rental restrictions. These factors matter more than ever in 2026.
What’s the Next Step If You’re Considering Buying or Selling?
If you’re buying:
• Start by identifying neighborhoods where prices have adjusted the most.
• Compare HOA fees across similar properties—this is where the biggest surprises hide.
• Get clarity on how Bill 9 affects the condo or complex you’re considering.
• Move quickly when you find a strong value—good properties still attract competition.
If you’re selling:
• Price according to today’s market, not last year’s peak.
• Prepare for a 4–6 month selling timeline, especially for condos.
• Offer incentives like closing credits or pre-paid HOA fees if needed.
• Work with a Realtor who understands the nuances of the new policies and fee structures.
The Bottom Line
December 2025 marked a significant turning point for Maui real estate. Higher inventory and shifting prices opened the door for more buyers, while policy changes and rising ownership costs reshaped the condo market more dramatically than any year in recent memory.
Whether you’re a buyer seeking opportunity or a seller navigating a more complex landscape, understanding these trends is essential—and acting strategically can help you make the most of Maui’s evolving real estate market.
If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.